Economic Outlook September 2016 Centrale Bank van Aruba

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The IMF and World Bank have recently revised their world output growth projections for 2016 downwards to, respectively, 3.1 percent and 2.4 percent.2 The revision reflects a loss in growth momentum for both the advanced economies as well as emerging market economies and lowerincome countries attributed to heightened domestic uncertainties and a more challenging external environment.

According to the World Bank, the expansion in the world economy is expected to remain roughly at the insipid pace experienced the year before, implying that after seven years the world’s economy is still recovering from the global financial crisis.

For Latin America and the Caribbean as a whole, the growth prospects are even bleaker than the world average, as the region is plagued by depressed commodity prices and domestic challenges in the region’s largest economies, leading the World Bank to estimate a contraction of 1.3 percent for the region. Brazil and particularly Venezuela are both mired in deep recessions, while Argentina is facing significant economic challenges. Growth prospects for the Caribbean sub‐region are more positive, as ECLAC forecasts a Caribbean GDP‐growth of 1.8 percent in 2016, carried by the service economies.

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